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Quinns decision to kick was a costly one

Quinns decision to kick was a costly one
quinns-decision-to-kick-was-a-costly-one
With exactly three minutes remaining, his team http://www.broncosnflofficialprostore.com/Owen_Daniels_Jersey trailing the San Francisco 49ers 17-13, Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn faced what seemed like a tough call. The Falcons faced a fourth-and-goal from the San Francisco 1. With two timeouts, a solid kicker in Matt Bryant and an unproven backup quarterback on the opposing sideline, Quinn leaned on convention -- he had his team kick the field goal. The alternative, going for the touchdown immediately, would have put the Falcons up by three. It would have been risky and still wouldn’t have guaranteed a win, but it would have been the percentage play. It’s not even close. Going for it would have given Atlanta a 48.6 percent Andrus Peat Youth Jersey win probability. A field goal attempt would have given them a 27 percent win probability. The decision cut the Falcons' chance of winning nearly in half. Those estimates account for the relative strength of teams, as the Football Power Index gave the Falcons a 76 percent chance of winning at the outset of the game. Conversions on the goal line from the 1 are successful about 55 percent of the time, although in this case it happened to be a relatively long one yard. But if we look at things from the other direction, and calculate the chance of success needed for the conversion attempt to be worth the risk, the decision should have been easy. The Falcons would have needed only a 15 percent chance of success for the total win probability for going for it to be at least as high for the nearly-automatic field goal. Even a failure would have left the 49ers with the ball at their own goal line, an advantage for the Falcons that can be easily overlooked. And if their fourth-down attempt failed, it was likely Atlanta could get the ball back in good field position with enough time remaining to score. It’s not as hard to score a needed touchdown in desperation as you might think. With all four downs available and a risk-reward equation that makes turnovers no worse than a stop on downs, the consolation prize for failing to score on fourth down at the goal line shouldn’t be forgotten. In fourth-down situations, the analytics http://www.officialauthentictitans.com/Marcus_Mariota_Jersey clearly favor more aggressive decisions, and it’s easy to sound like a broken record on the topic. But this case was especially costly for Quinn and the Falcons, as the 49ers never relinquished possession after the field goal.

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